Predicting the Fall of World of Warcraft
Predicting the Fall of World of Warcraft
For the past 5 somewhat years WOW has been dominating the MMO world with no signs of slowing down, but with a crippled world economy and stiff competition the rate of subscribers are starting to decrease. Just last year they could boast 2 million subcriptions in just 6 months and now they are lucky enough to even get 1 million. The sad part is all good things come to end but usually they come to an end by the hands of other good things. Let me explain why I predict that WoW is going to completely demise in the next 2 years.
Blizzard falling apart as a company
Blizzard is dying and becoming some bizzare crossbreed between Vivendi, Activision and itself. It's no longer Blizzard as you know it and now is some sort of twisted abomination hiding behind that Blizzard logo. Ever since Vivendi bought Blizzard, there was discontent with how things are done in the company itself, which lead to the Big 4 developers leaving the company all together. Many high ranking producers also left (and some forced to leave) to be replaced those who Vivendi thought would be more fit.
Now I am not an expert on the decisions that video game corporations make, but don't you think it is a bad thing to let go some of the most talented developers, designers and producers in the industry. How talented would you say? They were some of the SOLE developers and designers of starcraft, warcraft 1, 2, 3 , Diablo 1, 2 AND World of Warcraft. I think I anyone would give them the benefit of the doubt that they are a valuable asset.
What is left at blizzard? I myself am not sure. Ever since the completion of WOW less and less of the original crew is actually working at Blizzard anymore. Will they be able to keep it afloat with new expansions? The battle is fierce and as new competition arises, the risks and demand for profit is staggering. Without that experienced talent from the original members, it could completely turn the game on its head (like adding a cash pet store for a game people already pay for...oh wait....)
Stiff Competition
WOW is not an impenetrable fortress. Let me repeat that 100 times through. Over the years the competition has chipped away at WOW's market share and got plummeted, beaten and decimated. But over time, those chips have started to become huge gashes and how long that fortress can hold really matters on how fast they can repair it (which is done by throwing an expansion together).
This year there is a lot less chipping and a lot more full blown holes.
1.) The Arrival of New Blockbuster MMOs
If you told me a year ago that WOW could be threaten by anything in the market, I would have though you were crazy but today it has become a reality. In the past many have tried, and failed completely like Age of Conan. But this year we actually seen a real contender and although I may have been sceptical at first, the truth lies in the fact that it has eaten a huge share of the MMO market.
The arrival of Aion. Thats right I wrote a whole review about Aion during its beta (and I still recieve hate mail for it even to this day. Read it here). We all knew it was coming sooner or later. A makeshift colossus to battle another colossus. It may not have beaten WOW in any way but it did take a big bite out of it. The second Aion stepped into the market, subscriptions got cancelled and a second powerhouse was born (even though I hate to admit it).
2.) The F2P MMO is becoming more refined and releasing new content more frequently
Yes the F2P MMO is improving and are bringing fresh content at high quality standards. Just to give a quick example, I would like to use Mabinogi. In less than a year it has expanded faster than any MMO in the market. When I say expand, I mean pop shove some new content. In 8 months it has a whole new continent (4x bigger than the original one), new zones, story quests ..etc.
People use to say that the reason WOW is unique is because it is always expanding itself with new content very frequently. The F2P model seems to have learned that too and understand that in order to keep their audience they must constantly inject new content into the game.
3.) The economy is not in its best shape
With the economic crisis, people are spending less and looking towards cheaper forms of entertainment. Economists predicted that as the recession hits, people would spend more on cheap entertainment like video games. Unfortunately it didn't happen and although some forms of entertainment like the movie industry are making big gains, the video game industry is having to close production studios and lay off their developers. Even though WOW did make profit, it did have a much lower subscription rate than what was expected and as we speak that subscription rate is steadily decreasing.
My Conclusion: Why it is good for the giant to fall?
If a giant falls, it is only going to be replaced by a bigger and better giant. Some of us will complain, others will deny it, but nevertheless the majority will feel that what has replaced the void that WOW will leave, will definitely be a major improvement.
There are times when I say stuff like "those retro games were so great back then" but the truth is the games of the future will always be better. If we compare the games of the past and the present, gaming itself has involved and improved upon itself. More depth in story, better graphics, more styles of gameplay, motion controls and online live community. When WOW becomes a game of the past, I won't be telling anyone "remember how great that game was" but instead I will be saying "look at how much better games have become"
Comment ( 37 )
@Keldius
They cant fake or lie the number of subscribers because there are many share holders who will get upset and sue blizzard if such things occur.
@Ajatz
Am i hammering enough sense into ur puny brain? Do more research before posting another article abour any GAME in this site or forum. Critiques are good for u and readers =]
Lol, I'd say WoW will survive at least 3-5 more years. How can u say that Blizzard is falling apart as a company just because its original stuffs are no longer working there?( or is it like...if a giant falls...its replaced by a more talented giant?).
No, ur #1 fails. How many self proclaimed WoW Killer games hav survived?
#2...fails. F2P or P2P is merely an issue for most gamers. P2P = real skill, F2P = buy power and wealth using really $. Dude, forget about WoW's pet store bcs u can play w/o those pets and they are just for decoration.
Yes, ur #3 fails too. Even if the economy is not in its good shape, well there are millions of people still playing and paying for WoW.
Please go and troll somewhere else.
I know 15$ a month is too expensive for u. So get a better job =]
#fail article ::S
hellll yeah dieeeee Everquest clone
I don't think WoW will go down easily.. Well, yeah they may have lesser subscriptions lately but that doesn't mean that it will end soon. Players maybe are just trying Aion, checking it out since its a new game but eventually they will come back to WoW once they see that it's a lot better than Aion. I mean why does currency sites continue to <a title=”sell ****” href=http://www.pusada.com target=”_self”>sell ****</a> if it's really going down the wire, right?
Aion may have taken a bit out of WoW, but it'll be a while before we see any decreasing numbers of suscribers. Like many have said, WoW is a cash cow. Regardless of all the negativitiy, they have the largest population of all games.
Games are constantly coming out with better mechanics and graphics. It's really up to the company to continue and maintain the games out there. The reason why we see so many failed attempts are mainly due to bug/lag issues (funcom). WoW did have an advantage of a fanbase from it's rts series. Quite honestly the only game that I could think of beating out wow is a game very much like .hack. Think about it. Who wouldn't want to be in a game where you control all your movements virtually. The idea isn't very farfetched and if it does become a reality, look out.
I honestly don't see any games in the coming future that will ever beat out wow, not even another mmorpg made by Blizzard. I'm not saying it's not possible but releasing another mmorpg will not be for another at least 5 years.
SOmething is true I know why I don't play wow and why over 100 000 Millions and more of gamer doesnt play wow neither and as well quit wow ( did they count the deactivating of WoW acocunt into the Number ? ) all My friend is on AION now they were ex FFXI and ex WOW
as for storyline I liked the warcraft series ( the RTS ) mostly Warcraft III but it's kinda become ... errr how do I said messed up at the end ?
and FFXI has a Good story in it ( yeah most people woN,t agree but it's my opinion Take it or leave it ) as well as AIOn and Aion remind me of FFXI I loved it and I learn how to play it as well
as for FPS you do not really story line but left 4 dead 1 and 2 has storyline modern warfare as well
but like the sales clerks at Playzone said The wow gamer is too addicted to wow that they don,t see any other game outside
SOmething is true I know why I don't play wow and why over 100 000 Millions and more of gamer doesnt play wow neither and as well quit wow ( did they count the deactivating of WoW acocunt into the Number ? ) all My friend is on AION now they were ex FFXI and ex WOW
as for storyline I liked the warcraft series ( the RTS ) mostly Warcraft III but it's kinda become ... errr how do I said messed up at the end ?
and FFXI has a Good story in it ( yeah most people woN,t agree but it's my opinion Take it or leave it ) as well as AIOn and Aion remind me of FFXI I loved it and I learn how to play it as well
as for FPS you do not really story line but left 4 dead 1 and 2 has storyline modern warfare as well
but like the sales clerks at Playzone said The wow gamer is too addicted to wow that they don,t see any other game outside
2012 end of the world
I believe all it takes is a look at the past, the present and the near future of World of Warcraft to understand where it is headed. But first, let's try to understand what you mean by "fall". Do you mean it not being one of the top-rated MMO in the western market? Or perhaps, you mean the service closing down totally?
The first, I believe will happen inevitably, be it replaced by another MMO of their making, or someone else. But to the second, I disagree. World of Warcraft has, still and will continue to serve as a gateway to MMOs. Almost becoming a household name now, especially of the current generation, it guides players to the more "hardcore" aspects of MMOs, like theorycraft. From then on, they either stay or move on to more advanced MMOs.
World of Warcraft, essentially, is good up until 80, after which a player's interest will start to wane as he is left with little to explore. In the end, everyone hungers for content and direction. Without direction (e.g quests), players are left aimless and thus, look for another alternative to give them direction.
LAWL AT THE COMMENT BELOW THIS. AION kicks more ass than WOW anyday. And F*** you RACIST @ss. 60% of the people are ASIAN so DON"T F**K WITH US
Ajatz replied at 11:34 am Nov 23,2009 I know you hate Blizzard because they have the best customer suport, the best running game, the best in game support, the most content, they battle gold farmers, have the best game developers and so on.... people like you hate the seccess of people who succeed. How about you go suck the balls of NC Soft, you jizz slurping, asian ass kissing QUEER.
Its a good thing you mmo noob ass posted this lame fale info crap on mmosite.com, like all false gaming info is posted. If you had posted this Blizzard hate on any real gaming mmo website, the mods would have deleted it.
Once more.... NOOOOOOOOB!
Hmm. Well, the only reason Blizzard has kept WoW alive this long in terms of updated content is because they simply have no other games out to make money. Regarding devoper turnover, it's interesting to notice how the language and storytelling differs between each expansion, which I think is a good thing. One can only work on a project for so long before his/her creative resources start to go stale. So sure, subscriptions are on the decline, but it's only a decline, not a death, and the "fall" will only happen when Blizzards next MMO comes out...
The part on newer games having more story depth? BULLSHIT, the majority of most new games barely have ANY story at all, WoW's storyline is easy to follow, mostly because you take part in it, when I play on other MMO's I have NO idea wtf is going on, the closest thing to a storyline i've seen on another MMO is Aion (which is incredibly played out), Warhammer, RF online, and Requiem. In the non MMO world story is.....WHAT THE **** is left for dead? All I see all day on T.V. are commercials for that dumb ****. Basicly what i'm trying to say is, as the world goes by and newer and newer generations come, story is losing its meaning and people just want to shoot shit anymore (if you read between the lines like a smart person you understand what i'm getting at, but if you don't, i'm saying **** MMOFPS or any stupid FPS games there is no point to them but to entertain children that don't know how to read properly).
Aion ALL THE WAY. WOW died a long time ago so predicting the fall is kinda late (its already happened). Also I think this article was purposely written to piss off the fan boys !!! LOL (the internet drama continues !)
Wow will fall when something new AND Original can compete. Aion took off because alot of long term Wow players were tired of the same s#$% differerent day gaming. We cancelled our accounts and either signed up for Aion or beta tested...and unfortunately are finding nothing original, nothing special. So guess what, many of us will look around for something to gain/keep our interest. I know I've spent a couple of months playing various MMo's or other RPGs....and a bit reluntantly I will now probably be returning to Wow. Do I love the game like I used to..not really, Is it as new and original as it once was or does it now regurgitate the same game material over and over, just changing names and faces...probably much more of the later. But at the moment, it is still the most consistently entertaining MMO out there. However I do know that if/when something ORIGINAL and well made comes out, I plan to move on as emotionally I am more than ready.
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